The Euro with regard to the North American Dollar has registered from December of the previous year a trend to the rise that saw strengthened with the advertisement in the increase in 25 points base of the Rate of Interest, which there announced last Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB) (from 1.00 % to 1.25 %).
In the matter, it is worth a sorrow remembering that the ECB had come supporting the rate of 1.00 % during the last 23 months (from May 7, 2009), and that in recent declarations, Mr Jean Claude Trichet had sent signs to the Market to the effect that in the meeting of April it might decide an increase in the rate of Interest.
For if it was small, the United States of North America do not manage to compose his economy, additional factor that equally has stimulated to the Euro in his reappraisal with regard to the American Dollar.
The result jumps at sight, the Euro closes this week in the price of 1.4483 and accumulates from December 1, 2010 to the date an increase of 11.67 % with regard to the North American Dollar.
With these precedents, the question is
Up to where the Euro was coming?
For the prompt thing, almost it reaches the maximum of the year 2010 of 1.4578, which I register in January, though the latter value does not take any importance as a reference, since simply there forms a part of the information product of the strong downward trend that the Euro registered between December, 2009 and June, 2010.
Then, on that we support to do some forecast ?
It was seeming to be that in circumstances as this one, the Technical Analysis stops being a useful tool, nevertheless, if we observe the attached graph, which it includes from January, 2002 up to the date, we can identify very clear five rising trends and that correspond to the couples of numbers in yellow color 1,2 3,4 5,6 7,8 any more the current trend, which initiates where we have placed the number 9 and whose term does not know.
The common factor of four previous rising trends is that they have finished after the formation of a double top that this indicated with the ovals of light blue color.
Therefore, the recommendation is that if we manage to observe that the EUR/USD in a Monthly graph registers the formation of a double top, there will be necessary to be very attentive to the evolution of the Euro after the formation of this double top, since it can be the notice of which the current rising trend shows signs of depletion and can then do a Swing to the fall.
